Market Participation Decisions, Commercialization Intensity, and Structural Transformation in Maryland’s Goat Sector: An Empirical Analysis
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54536/ajebi.v5i2.7324Keywords:
Fixed-Effects Estimation, Herd Size, Market Participation, Small-Scale Goat FarmingAbstract
Although goat production accounts for a small share of the total U.S. livestock output, it plays a crucial role in diversified and small-scale farming systems. Despite representing less than 1% of the U.S. goat inventory and sales, Maryland provides valuable insights into the commercialization of small-scale livestock systems. However, limited empirical evidence exists on the drivers of goat commercialization at the state level, particularly in distinguishing between market growth driven by expansion within existing farms and that driven by the entry of new producers. This study examines the determinants of goat market participation and commercialization intensity using county-level panel data from the USDA Census of Agriculture for 2002–2022 (92 county–year observations). A Two-Way Fixed Effects (TWFE) and Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) frameworks are employed to isolate within-county variation over time. Results show that increases in herd size are positively and significantly associated with goat sales (TWFE: β = 0.844, p < 0.05; PPML: β = 1.204, p < 0.01), while changes in the number of farms are not statistically significant. Although market participation increased until 2017 and declined by 2022, the overall pattern indicates emerging structural constraints in commercialization. These findings demonstrate that commercialization in small-scale goat production systems is primarily driven by intensification among existing producers rather than by new farm entry. By focusing on within-county variation, this study provides a clearer understanding of scale effects in small-scale livestock systems and contributes to the literature on structural transformation. The results suggest that policies focusing on improving market access, processing infrastructure, and support for herd expansion among existing farmers are more effective than policies aimed at increasing the number of producers.
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