Terrorism, Kidnapping and Rural Security Crisis in Ogbomosoland, Oyo State, Nigeria (2021–2026): An Exploratory Spatial Assessment of Emerging Violent Threats Across Five Local Government Areas

Abstract

This paper investigated the spatial pattern and security consequences of kidnapping, organized violence, and rural insecurity in the five Local Government Areas (LGAs) of Ogbomosoland in Oyo State, Nigeria, from 2021 to 2026. The emergence of kidnapping, armed attacks, and criminal activities, especially in rural areas, called for a spatial assessment of insecurity in terms of its geographical determinants. This paper employed a framework of exploratory spatial-security assessment based on the use of OSINT, GIS methods, and secondary data from national newspapers, security communiqués, traditional rulers’ documents, ACLED, and Nextier security intelligence. The data analysis was based on spatial risk profiling, incident mapping, descriptive statistics, and the Spearman’s Rank Correlation Coefficient. The results show that 40-67 kidnapping cases took place in Ogbomosoland, which claimed about 100-175 people as victims, resulting in 10-24 deaths during the period under study. The most at-risk locations included Oriire and Surulere LGAs due to their location near forest reserves, interstate highways, and poor security facilities. In addition, there is a statistically significant negative relationship between the number of police stations and the number of incidents. The temporal pattern indicates that the number of violent events increased steadily since 2021 and peaked with a mass abduction of school children in Oriire LGA in 2026. The results of the study indicate that rural insecurity in Ogbomosoland transformed from individual criminal events into organized and spatially concentrated risks driven by environmental, infrastructural, and institutional factors. According to the study, the security problems experienced by Ogbomosoland call for immediate and location-specific measures to be implemented. The findings included an increased effort in terms of rural security surveillance, bettering the community policing approach, improving security coordination among states, empowering the youth, and using intelligence and information management technologies in the process.