U.S. Production and Trade Contribution to the Global Tomato Market: Analysis of U.S. Production Forecasts Using a Quadratic Trend Model
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54536/ajase.v5i1.6401Keywords:
Price Forecasting, Production Forecasting Models, Self-Sufficiency, Tomato Production, Tomato Trade BalanceAbstract
Tomatoes are a globally popular horticultural crop, valued for their nutritional and economic significance. The United States is a major producer of fresh tomatoes, playing a crucial role in both domestic consumption and international trade. However, its production has shown variable trends over the past decade. This study analyzes U.S. tomato production trends from 2010 to 2023 using linear, quadratic, and exponential trend models and forecasts for 2024-2029 using the best-fit model. Data was collected from FAOSTAT and USDA databases. The models’ performance was evaluated using Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Squared Deviation (MSD), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), with the quadratic model achieving the highest predictive accuracy, recording the lowest forecasting errors (MAD = 876,821; MSD = 1.18×10¹²; MAPE = 6.94%). Global production has continued to rise, led primarily by China and India, while U.S. production fluctuated moderately, reaching its highest level in 2014 and demonstrating an upward trend again in 2023. The predicted U.S. production is expected to decline gradually from 10.13 million metric tonnes in 2024 to 8.17 million metric tonnes in 2029. This suggests potential vulnerability in domestic supply and increasing reliance on imports, particularly from Mexico, which currently supplies nearly two-thirds of U.S. domestic demand. However, these forecasts should be viewed as general guidance rather than precise predictions of future prices. The findings highlight the need for adaptive production strategies, climate-resilient practices, and sustainable trade policies. By combining historical data with robust forecasting, this study addresses the gap in predictive analysis and provides practical insights for producers, policymakers, and supply chain stakeholders.
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