The Green Space Paradox: Adaptive Infrastructure and Its Displacement Effects on Low-Income Urban Residents

Abstract

As cities in the Global South invest in climate-resilient infrastructure, a paradox has emerged: while green infrastructure aims to reduce urban vulnerability, it may inadvertently intensify socio-spatial inequalities. This study investigates the relationship between green adaptation projects and patterns of social displacement in unplanned settlements in Asaba, Delta State, Nigeria. Using a mixed-methods design, we surveyed 420 households across four neighbourhoods impacted by recent urban greening and flood mitigation initiatives. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, cross-tabulation, and logistic regression to assess correlations between environmental upgrades, rent changes, and tenure security. Results indicate that while 63% of residents recognize improvements in flood control and recreational space, 58% report rent increases of over 30% within two years of implementation. Additionally, 41% of informal tenants expressed concerns about eviction or future relocation, with the highest vulnerability observed among households earning below ₦50,000 monthly. Regression analysis (R² = 0.67, p < 0.01) confirms that rising rental pressure and lack of tenure documentation are significant predictors of perceived displacement risk. Qualitative interviews further reveal community distrust in planning authorities and the absence of compensatory or inclusive planning mechanisms. These findings highlight the unintended consequences of climate adaptation in informal urban contexts. The study recommends that resilience planning be integrated with pro-poor housing policies, participatory governance, and a tenure regularization framework to ensure that green infrastructure does not perpetuate urban exclusion. The paper contributes to debates on climate justice and inclusive adaptation in African secondary cities.