Self-Reinforcing Mechanisms and Energy Policy: The Case of Uzbekistan’s Gas Sector
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54536/ajenr.v5i1.7809Keywords:
Energy Security, Gas Crisis, Lukoil, Path Dependency, Self-Reinforcing Sequences, UzbekistanAbstract
This study examines Uzbekistan’s energy policy and the causes of its transition from a gas exporting to a gas importing country. Although Uzbekistan possesses vast natural gas reserves, its production has steadily declined since 2019, and in 2023 country became a net gas importer for the first time in its history. By utilizing process tracing method within a single case study design, we reformulated the casual sequence that induced this outcome. We argued that Uzbekistan’s energy crisis is the consequence of a path-dependent process driven by self-reinforcing mechanism. In this context, self-reinforcing sequences, which, although historically increased the source of income, once Uzbekistan as an exporter country, this choice turned the country into a closed path. As a result, the sequence of events culminated in an import crisis by 2023.
Downloads
References
Abdirasulova, S. (2025). The history of the gas industry in Uzbekistan during the early years of independence. Oriental Journal of History, Politics and Law, 5(11), 422–428.
Advanced Energy Technology. (n.d.). Energy industry in Uzbekistan. https://aenert.com/countries/asia/energy-industry-in-uzbekistan/
Alford, R. R., & Friedland, R. (1985). Powers of theory: Capitalism, the state, and democracy. Cambridge University Press.
Anceschi, L. (2022). The right distance: Russia-Central Asia relations in the aftermath of the invasion of Ukraine. Russian Analytical Digest, 289, 2–4.
Arrow, K. J. (1962). The economic implications of learning by doing. Review of Economic Studies, 29(3), 155–173.
Arthur, W. B. (1994). Increasing returns and path dependence in the economy. University of Michigan Press.
Bagirov, S. (2008). The economic aspects of the energy sector in CIS countries: Uzbekistan. Publisher Unknown.
Barrios, R., Blackwood, M. A., Nelson, R. M., & Sutherland, M. D. (2023). Central Asia: Implications of Russia’s war in Ukraine (CRS Report No. R47588). Congressional Research Service.
Bozhko, A. (2010). Analysis of natural gas market of Uzbekistan. Publisher Unknown.
Brands, H. (2023, June 4). The battle for Eurasia: China, Russia, and their autocratic friends are leading another epic clash over the world’s largest landmass. Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/06/04/russia-china-us-geopolitics-eurasia-strategy/
Collier, R. B., & Collier, D. (1991). Shaping the political arena: Critical junctures, the labor movement, and regime dynamics in Latin America. Princeton University Press.
David, P. A. (1985). Clio and the economics of QWERTY. American Economic Review, 75(2), 332–337.
Hirschhausen, C. von, & Engerer, H. (1998). Post-Soviet gas sector restructuring in the CIS: A political economy approach. Energy Policy, 26(15), 1113–1123.
Ikenberry, G. J. (1994). The political foundations of international cooperation. Cornell University Press.
Khodjaeva, S. (2021). Developing of natural gas transportation of Central Asia and its geopolitical and geo-economic aspects. Publisher Unknown.
Krasner, S. D. (1988). Sovereignty: An institutional perspective. Comparative Political Studies, 21, 66–94.
Krasner, S. D. (1989). Sovereignty: Organized hypocrisy. Princeton University Press.
Kun.uz. (2024). Kazakhstan plans to increase transit of Russian gas to Uzbekistan to 11 billion cubic meters — TASS. kun.uz
Kun.uz. (2025, September 15). Uzbekistan discovers major gas reserve in Ustyurt after deep drilling. kun.uz
Kun.uz. (2025). Major gas storage facility to be modernized at Karabayr field. kun.uz
Laumulin, M. (2006). Gazprom as a transnational corporation and Central Asia. Central Asia and Caucasus, 7(4–5).
Lex.uz. (2005, April 11). Decree of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan No. UP-3594. lex.uz
Lex.uz. (2007, November 9). Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan No. 249. lex.uz
Lex.uz. (2015, April 24). Presidential Decree No. PP-2338. lex.uz
Lombardozzi, L. (2024). Structural transformation through a multi-vector geo-economic governance? BRI and upgrading of the Uzbek gas industry. Publisher Unknown.
Losz, A., & Mitrova, T. (2023). Central Asia’s overlooked energy crisis: What it means for the global gas market. Center on Global Energy Policy.
Lukoil. (2007). Annual report. lukoil.com
Lukoil. (2016). Annual data. lukoil.com
Lukoil Press Center. (2011). LUKOIL signs USD 500 million syndicated loan agreement to finance gas project in Uzbekistan. lukoil.com
Lukoil Press Center. (2017, September 23). LUKOIL launches new facilities at Gissar fields cluster in Uzbekistan. lukoil.com
Lukoil Press Center. (2018, October 19). LUKOIL and Uzbekneftegaz sign memorandum of understanding. lukoil.com
Mahoney, J. (2000). Path dependence in historical sociology. Theory and Society, 29(4), 507–548.
Ozot, M. (2023). Energy crisis in Central Asia. Publisher Unknown.
Pearson, S. (2023). Policy feedback and path dependence in energy systems (Doctoral dissertation, University of Zagreb). Faculty of Economics and Business.
Pierson, P. (2000). Increasing returns, path dependence, and the study of politics. American Political Science Review, 94(2), 251–267.
Popławski, M., & Rudnik, F. (2024). Russian gas in Central Asia: A plan to deepen dependence. Center for Eastern Studies (OSW).
Powell, W. W. (1991). Expanding the scope of institutional analysis. In W. W. Powell & P. J. DiMaggio (Eds.), The new institutionalism in organizational analysis (pp. 183–203). University of Chicago Press.
Rakova, E., & Ferdinand, P. (2004). Gas sector restructuring in Belarus: Necessity and directions. IPM Research Center.
Rickleton, C. (2023). Central Asian leaders shun ‘reputational costs’ to join Putin’s Victory Day Parade. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. rferl.org
Strokan, M. (2023). A window to India? The trilateral gas union and Russia’s energy pivot to Asia. Publisher Unknown.
Sulatanbaevich, J., & Boltaboyevich, K. (n.d.). Fuel industry development in Uzbekistan. International Journal of Economics, Commerce, and Management, 5(11).
The Korea Times. (2017). KOGAS completes 10-year energy project. koreatimes.co.kr
The Tashkent Times. (2026, April 27). Uzbekistan’s natural gas reserves estimated at 1.86 trillion cubic meters. http://tashkenttimes.uz
Tsafos, N. (2022). Big shifts in world LNG map in 2021. Gas Line, Q4 2021.
Umarov, T. (2022). Russia and Central Asia: Never closer, or drifting apart? Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Uz Daily. (2012). Gazprom signs contract with Uzbekistan on gas purchase. uzdaily.com
World Bank. (2021). World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS) database. worldbank.org
World Economic Forum & International Energy Agency. (2023). World energy outlook 2023. International Energy Agency.
Abdirasulova, S. (2025). The history of the gas industry in Uzbekistan during the early years of independence. Oriental Journal of History, Politics and Law, 5(11), 422–428.
Advanced Energy Technology. (n.d.). Energy industry in Uzbekistan. Retrieved from https://aenert.com/countries/asia/energy-industry-in-uzbekistan/
Alford, R. R., & Friedland, R. (1985). Powers of theory: Capitalism, the state, and democracy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Anceschi, L. (2022). The right distance: Russia-Central Asia relations in the aftermath of the invasion of Ukraine. Russian Analytical Digest, 289, 2–4.
Arthur, W. B. (1994). Increasing returns and path dependence in the economy. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Arrow, K. J. (1962). The economic implications of learning by doing. Review of Economic Studies, 29(3), 155–173.
Bagirov, S. (2008). The economic aspects of the energy sector in CIS countries: Uzbekistan.
Barrios, R., Blackwood, M. A., Nelson, R. M., & Sutherland, M. D. (2023). Central Asia: Implications of Russia’s war in Ukraine. Congressional Research Service Report.
Bozhko, A. (2010). Analysis of natural gas market of Uzbekistan.
Brands, H. (2023, June 4). The battle for Eurasia: China, Russia, and their autocratic friends are leading another epic clash over the world’s largest landmass. Foreign Policy. Retrieved July 10, 2023, from https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/06/04/russia-china-us-geopolitics-eurasia-strategy/ (foreignpolicy.com in Bing)
Collier, R. B., & Collier, D. (1991). Shaping the political arena: Critical junctures, the labor movement, and regime dynamics in Latin America. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
David, P. A. (1985). Clio and the economics of QWERTY. American Economic Review, 75(2), 332–337.
Hirschhausen, C. von, & Engerer, H. (1998). Post-Soviet gas sector restructuring in the CIS: A political economy approach. Energy Policy, 26(15), 1113–1123.
Ikenberry, G. J. (1994). The political foundations of international cooperation. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.
Khodjaeva, S. (2021). Developing of natural gas transportation of Central Asia and its geopolitical and geo-economic aspects.
Krasner, S. D. (1988). Sovereignty: An institutional perspective. Comparative Political Studies, 21, 66–94.
Krasner, S. D. (1989). Sovereignty: Organized hypocrisy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Kun.uz. (2024). Kazakhstan plans to increase transit of Russian gas to Uzbekistan to 11 billion cubic meters — TASS.
Kun.uz. (2024). Kazakhstan plans to increase transit of Russian gas to Uzbekistan to 11 billion cubic meters — TASS.
Kun.uz. (2025, September 15). Uzbekistan discovers major gas reserve in Ustyurt after deep drilling.
Kun.uz. (2025). Major gas storage facility to be modernized at Karabayr field.
Laumulin, M. (2006). Gazprom as a transnational corporation and Central Asia. Central Asia and Caucasus, 7(4–5).
Lex.uz. (2005, April 11). Decree of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan No. UP-3594.
Lex.uz. (2007, November 9). Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan No. 249.
Lex.uz. (2015, April 24). Presidential Decree No. PP-2338.
Lombardozzi, L. (2024). Structural transformation through a multi-vector geo-economic governance? BRI and upgrading of the Uzbek gas industry.
Losz, A., & Mitrova, T. (2023). Central Asia’s overlooked energy crisis: What it means for the global gas market. Center on Global Energy Policy.
Lukoil. (2007). Annual report.
Lukoil. (2016). Annual data.
Lukoil Press Center. (2011). LUKOIL signs USD 500 million syndicated loan agreement to finance gas project in Uzbekistan.
Lukoil Press Center. (2017, September 23). LUKOIL launches new facilities at Gissar fields cluster in Uzbekistan.
Lukoil Press Center. (2018, October 19). LUKOIL and Uzbekneftegaz sign memorandum of understanding.
Mahoney, J. (2000). Path dependence in historical sociology. Theory and Society, 29(4), 507–548.
Ozot, M. (2023). [Energy crisis in Central Asia].
Pearson, S. (2023). Policy feedback and path dependence in energy systems (Doctoral dissertation). University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business.
Pierson, P. (2000). Increasing returns, path dependence, and the study of politics. American Political Science Review, 94(2), 251–267.
Popławski, M., & Rudnik, F. (2024). Russian gas in Central Asia: A plan to deepen dependence.
Powell, W. W. (1991). Expanding the scope of institutional analysis. In W. W. Powell & P. J. DiMaggio (Eds.), The new institutionalism in organizational analysis. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Rakova, E., & Ferdinand, P. (2004). Gas sector restructuring in Belarus: Necessity and directions. IPM Research Center.
Rickleton, C. (2023). Central Asian leaders shun ‘reputational costs’ to join Putin’s Victory Day Parade. Radio Free Europe.
Strokan, M. (2023). A window to India? The trilateral gas union and Russia’s energy pivot to Asia.
Sulatanbaevich, J., & Boltaboyevich, K. (n.d.). Fuel industry development in Uzbekistan. International Journal of Economics, Commerce, and Management, 5(11).
The Korea Times. (2017). KOGAS completes 10-year energy project.
The Tashkent Times. (2026, April 27). Uzbekistan’s natural gas reserves estimated at 1.86 trillion cubic meters.
Tsafos, N. (2022). Big shifts in world LNG map in 2021. Gas Line, Q4 2021.
Umarov, T. (2022). Russia and Central Asia: Never closer, or drifting apart?
Uz Daily. (2012). Gazprom signs contract with Uzbekistan on gas purchase.
World Bank. (2021). World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS) database.
World Economic Forum / International Energy Agency. (2023). World Energy Outlook 2023.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Gulkhayo Sharipova
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
