Satellite-Based Assessment of Water Level Variability And Economic Exposure In Azerbaijan’s Caspian Sea and Strategic Inland Water Systems
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54536/ajee.v5i2.8204Keywords:
Azerbaijan, Economic Exposure, Satellite Altimetry, Water Risk, Water-Level VariabilityAbstract
This study evaluates the water-level changes and economic vulnerability of the Caspian Sea coast and the strategic inland water systems in Azerbaijan using satellite altimetry, official statistics and a geographic information system analysis. Long-term water-level data from Caspian Sea were used in conjunction with data obtained from satellites for Mingachevir and Shamkir reservoirs, and for river systems of Kura and Araz. Socioeconomic indicators for the regions for 2024 were used to represent current economic exposure and water dependency for agricultural production, including population, population density, industrial output, capital investment, agricultural production, water abstraction, water consumption, water lost, and irrigation use. To add some context on water efficiency and water stress, national indicators concerning SDG 6.4.1, SDG 6.4.2, and agricultural freshwater withdrawals were added. Each variable was normalised and combined in an author developed Integrated Water Risk and Economic Exposure Index, aided by spatial classification and mapping using QGIS. The results show that there exists a high spatial variability of water related exposures, and the highest exposures occur in areas where high population density, industrial concentration, agricultural dependence and strategic water infrastructure coincide. The exposure was the highest in Baku, and several districts in the central part of agriculture, such as Agjabadi, Sabirabad, Shamkir, and Saatli, also had higher values. The results highlight the need to consider long-term hydrological change in conjunction with current socioeconomic vulnerability, rather than as a stand-alone environmental phenomenon. The study suggests a framework for an open and reproducible water-risk assessment and gives evidence for climate adaptation, coastal planning, irrigation management, investment in infrastructure, and regional development policy in Azerbaijan.
Downloads
References
Chen, J. L., Pekker, T., Wilson, C. R., Tapley, B. D., Kostianoy, A. G., Crétaux, J.-F., & Safarov, E. S. (2017). Long-term caspian sea level change. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(13), 6993–7001. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073958
Chen, J., Cazenave, A., Wang, S.-Y., & Li, J. (2023). Caspian sea level change observed by satellite altimetry. Remote Sensing, 15(3), Article 703. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15030703
Court, R., Lattuada, M., Shumeyko, N., Baimukanov, M., Eybatov, T., Kaidarova, A., Mamedov, E. V., Rustamov, E., Tasmagambetova, A., Prange, M., Wilke, T., Hassall, C., & Goodman, S. J. (2025). Rapid decline of Caspian Sea level threatens ecosystem integrity, biodiversity protection, and human infrastructure. Communications Earth & Environment, 6, Article 261. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02212-5
Database for Hydrological Time Series of Inland Waters. (2026). Caspian Sea (39): Water level time series from satellite altimetry [Data set]. Deutsches Geodätisches Forschungsinstitut, Technical University of Munich. https://dahiti.dgfi.tum.de/en/39/water-level-altimetry/
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. (2026). AQUASTAT: FAO’s global information system on water and agriculture [Data set]. https://www.fao.org/aquastat/
Guliyeva, S., Gadimli, N., Azizov, Y., Hajiyev, Z., & Bayramov, S. (2021). Fiscal policy effectiveness and risks in the development of Azerbaijan’s economy during economic shock. Journal of Eastern European and Central Asian Research, 8(2), 171–183. https://doi.org/10.15549/jeecar.v8i2.710
Humanitarian Data Exchange. (2023). Azerbaijan: Subnational edge-matched administrative boundaries [Data set]. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. https://data.humdata.org/dataset/cod-em-aze
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2022). Climate change 2022: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E. S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, & B. Rama, Eds.). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2023). Climate change 2023: Synthesis report: Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Core Writing Team, H. Lee, & J. Romero, Eds.). https://doi.org/10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647
Mammadov, U. (2026a). Agricultural water dependency indicators for Azerbaijan [Data set]. Green Economy and Optimization Research Lab. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21294335
Mammadov, U. (2026b). Caspian Sea water level variability dataset for Azerbaijan based on satellite altimetry observations [Data set]. Green Economy and Optimization Research Lab. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21290442
Mammadov, U. (2026c). Economic exposure indicators for Caspian coastal regions of Azerbaijan [Data set]. Green Economy and Optimization Research Lab. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21293693
Mammadov, U. (2026d). Figures, maps and processed outputs for the water systems study [Data set]. Green Economy and Optimization Research Lab. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21311758
Mammadov, U. (2026e). Integrated water risk and economic exposure index dataset for Azerbaijan [Data set]. Green Economy and Optimization Research Lab. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21300407
Mammadov, U. (2026f). Point-based geospatial inventory of Azerbaijan’s Caspian and strategic inland water systems [Data set]. Green Economy and Optimization Research Lab. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21292605
Mammadov, U. (2026g). Water stress and water use efficiency indicators of Azerbaijan [Data set]. Green Economy and Optimization Research Lab. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21294637
Mammadov, U., & Bernardino, R. (2026). Satellite-based water level dataset for selected strategic inland water bodies of Azerbaijan based on DAHITI satellite altimetry observations [Data set]. Green Economy and Optimization Research Lab. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21291632
National Aeronautics and Space Administration. (2010, June 7). Mingachevir Reservoir, Azerbaijan. NASA Earth Observatory. https://science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-observatory/mingachevir-reservoir-azerbaijan-44186/
National Aeronautics and Space Administration. (2026). Caspian Sea (000270): Water levels from satellite altimetry [Data set]. Global Water Measurements. https://earth.gsfc.nasa.gov/gwm/lake/270
QGIS Development Team. (2024). QGIS geographic information system (Version 3.40) [Computer software]. QGIS Association. https://qgis.org/
Sadiqov, E., Qadimli, N., & Mammadov, U. (2026). Green finance instruments for supporting solar energy development in Azerbaijan. American Journal of Energy and Natural Resources, 5(1), 18–26. https://doi.org/10.54536/ajenr.v5i1.7984
Samant, R., & Prange, M. (2023). Climate-driven 21st century Caspian Sea level decline estimated from CMIP6 projections. Communications Earth & Environment, 4, Article 357. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01017-8
Schwatke, C., Dettmering, D., Bosch, W., & Seitz, F. (2015). DAHITI—An innovative approach for estimating water level time series over inland waters using multi-mission satellite altimetry. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 4345–4364. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4345-2015
State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan. (2024). Regional statistical indicators: Population, industry, investment, agriculture, and water use [Data set]. https://www.azstat.gov.az/webmap/?lang=en
State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan. (2026a). SDG indicator 6.4.1: Change in water-use efficiency over time [Data set]. https://sdg.azstat.gov.az/
State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan. (2026b). SDG indicator 6.4.2: Level of water stress [Data set]. https://sdg.azstat.gov.az/
UN-Water. (n.d.-a). Indicator 6.4.1: Change in water-use efficiency over time. https://www.unwater.org/our-work/sdg-6-integrated-monitoring-initiative/indicator-641-change-water-use-efficiency-over-time
UN-Water. (n.d.-b). Indicator 6.4.2: Level of water stress—Freshwater withdrawal as a proportion of available freshwater resources. https://www.unwater.org/our-work/sdg-6-integrated-monitoring-initiative/indicator-642-level-water-stress-freshwater
World Bank. (2026). Annual freshwater withdrawals, agriculture (% of total freshwater withdrawal)—Azerbaijan [Data set]. World Bank Open Data. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS?locations=AZ
Zeynalova, Z. Z. (2019). Service functions of tax regulation for the purposes of state development in the globalized environment. Journal of Advanced Research in Law and Economics, 10(7), 2190–2197. https://doi.org/10.14505/jarle.v10.7(45).34
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Nushaba Qadimli, Zaur Rasulov, Ulvi Mammadov, Elvin Hasilov
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
