Post-2021 Terrorism in Afghanistan and Its Geopolitical Impact on Regional Security: Case Studies of Pakistan and China

Abstract

The study evaluates the nature of emerging terrorism threats in post-2021 Afghanistan and their geopolitical implications for regional security while focusing on Pakistan and China as a major case study. Using a structured scoping review approach, the research systematically identified and analyzed academic, policy, and institutional literature to synthesize current patterns in militant activity, regional security responses, and the evolution of multilateral counterterrorism dynamics. Following a thematic synthesis to extract insights from diverse sources, the findings further identified the core security challenges and response frameworks. The findings reveal that, in the wake of the foreign military withdrawal from Afghanistan, the nation has witnessed a renewed presence of militant actors, most notably Islamic State Khorasan Province, al-Qaeda, and a resurgent Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan with extended cross-border reach. While the Taliban has established firm territorial control, it has yet to dismantle external jihadist networks which is a situation that continues to cause unease among the neighboring states. Pakistan specifically has faced an intensified insurgency along its western frontier further disrupting internal security and slowing its economic recovery. For China, developments in Afghanistan are viewed primarily through the risks of extremist spillover into Xinjiang and potential threats to Belt and Road Initiative infrastructure which is linking the two countries. Regional countermeasures, however, have been hindered by limited institutional coordination, enduring political frictions and differing perceptions of the threat’s urgency. As a result, security policies have tended to remain nationally focused and reactive, with minimal collective engagement. More so, the study concludes that durable stability will require a fundamental shift in regional security thinking-moving beyond militarized containment toward integrated strategies that combine intelligence cooperation, inclusive governance and economic resilience. Hence, without such a recalibration, Afghanistan’s security volatility is likely to persist, destabilizing its neighbors and undermining long-term prospects for peace and cooperation.