Eggplant Production and Trade: Global Patterns and U.S. Market Trends and Forecasting
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54536/ajitbae.v1i1.7467Keywords:
Agricultural Trade, Eggplant, Forecasting, Global Production, Quadratic Trend ModeAbstract
Eggplant is a major vegetable crop in Asia and the Mediterranean and has experienced steady global expansion over the past decade. This study uses FAOSTAT and USDA data (2013-2023) to examine production dynamics, trade flows, and market trends in the U.S., and to forecast eggplant production through 2031. Global eggplant cultivation reached approximately 1.9 million hectares with 61 million tons of production in the year 2023, reflecting a 29% increase compared to 2013. China and India remained dominant producers, together accounting for more than 85% of global supply. Findings revealed that countries with limited domestic production capacity, including Iraq, the U.S., France, and Germany, were leading importers. In the U.S., production remained stable at an average of 98.7 thousand tons annually, with most of it concentrated in California, Georgia, New Jersey, and Florida. However, declining acreage and rising imports highlight increasing dependence on foreign supply, driven by labor constraints and competitive pressures from lower-cost producers. Trade analysis shows persistent deficits, with imports consistently exceeding exports despite modest growth in domestic production. Trend-based forecasting of U.S. eggplant production using linear, quadratic, and exponential models shows that the quadratic model provides the best fit, with the lowest Mean Absolute Deviation (1,273.70), Mean Squared Deviation (2,171,575.20), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (1.29%). Based on this model, U.S. eggplant production is projected to decline by approximately 7.1% from 99,682.44 tons in 2025 to 92,625.52 tons by 2031. This study helps define the economic dimensions of eggplant cultivation and underscores the importance of labor-saving technologies, protected cultivation, and policy interventions to sustain production and enhance competitiveness in domestic and international markets
Downloads
References
Abbasi, S. S., Tahir, A., Raza, I., Abid, S., & Khan, M. N. (2015). Trend analysis and forecasting of wheat and rice prices in Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Agricultural Research, 28(3), 310–317.
Abid, S., Jamal, N., Anwar, M. Z., & Zahid, S. (2018). Exponential growth model for forecasting of area and production of potato crop in Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Agricultural Research, 31(1), 24–28. https://doi.org/10.17582/journal.pjar/2018/31.1.24.28
Abid, S., Raza, I., Khalil, A., Khan, M. N., Anwar, S., & Masood, M. A. (2014). Trend analysis and forecasting of maize area and production in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. European Academic Research, 2(4), 4653–4664.
Abrham, Y., & Shumbulo, A. (2024). Growth, yield and quality response of eggplant (Solanum melongena L.) to blended NPSB fertilizer rates and intra-row spacing in Boloso Bombe district, Wolaita zone, South Ethiopia. Heliyon, 10, e35671. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e35671
Agustin, M. G., & Tabaquero, A. L. (2024). Environmental and agricultural factors affecting the growth and morphological characteristics of eggplants. Psychology and Education: A Multidisciplinary Journal, 29(4), 569–572. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14543304
Alam, I., & Salimullah, M. (2021). Genetic engineering of eggplant (Solanum melongena L.): Progress, controversy and potential. Horticulturae, 7(4), 78. https://doi.org/10.3390/horticulturae7040078
Barchi, L., Aprea, G., Rabanus-Wallace, M. T., Toppino, L., Alonso, D., Portis, E., Lanteri, S., Gaccione, L., Omondi, E., van Zonneveld, M., Schafleitner, R., Ferrante, P., Börner, A., Stein, N., Díez, M. J., Lefebvre, V., Salinier, J., Boyaci, H. F., Finkers, R., Brouwer, M., Bovy, A. G., Rotino, G. L., Prohens, J., & Giuliano, G. (2023). Analysis of >3400 worldwide eggplant accessions reveals two independent domestication events and multiple migration-diversification routes. The Plant Journal, 116(6), 1667–1680. https://doi.org/10.1111/tpj.16455
Calvin, L., Martin, P., & Simnitt, S. (2022). Adjusting to higher labor costs in selected U.S. fresh fruit and vegetable industries (Economic Information Bulletin No. 235). U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.323872
Caruso, G., Pokluda, R., Sękara, A., Kalisz, A., Jezdinský, A., Kopta, T., & Grabowska, A. (2017). Agricultural practices, biology and quality of eggplant cultivated in Central Europe: A review. Horticultural Science, 44(4), 201–212. https://doi.org/10.17221/36/2016-HORTSCI
Davis, R. (2026). Where is eggplant best grown? A comprehensive guide to optimal cultivation. EatAndGeek. https://eatandgeek.com/where-is-eggplant-best-grown
Dhami, J. C., Katuwal, D. R., Awasthi, K. R., & Dhami, K. S. (2023). Effect of different post-harvest treatments on quality and shelf life of tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.) fruits during storage. Nepalese Horticulture, 17, 41–48. https://doi.org/10.3126/nh.v17i1.60631
Du, L., Bao, C., Hu, T., Zhu, Q., Hu, H., He, Q., & Mao, W. (2016). SmARF8, a transcription factor involved in parthenocarpy in eggplant. Molecular Genetics and Genomics, 291(1), 93–105. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00438-015-1088-5
Duri, L. G., Paradiso, R., Di Mola, I., Cozzolino, E., Ottaiano, L., Marra, R., & Mori, M. (2025). Organic fertilization and biostimulant application to improve yield and quality of eggplant while reducing environmental impact. Plants, 14(6), 962. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants14060962
Ebrahimi, M., Souri, M. K., Mousavi, A., et al. (2021). Biochar and vermicompost improve growth and physiological traits of eggplant under deficit irrigation. Chemical and Biological Technologies in Agriculture, 8, 19. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40538-021-00216-9
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. (2001). Food balance sheets: A handbook. FAO.
Gazula, A. (2025, January 17). Eggplant. Central Coast Farms (UCANR). https://www.centralcoastfarms.org/crop-production/eggplant
Ghani, M. I., Ali, A., Atif, M. J., Ali, M., Ahanger, M. A., Chen, X., & Cheng, Z. (2023). Cropping systems regulate growth, photosynthesis, and PSII functioning in eggplant. Frontiers in Plant Science, 14, 1132861. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2023.1132861
Ghosh, S. K. (2022). Eggplant (Solanum melongena L.) and climate resilient agricultural practices. In S. R. Choudhury & C. K. Panda (Eds.), Climate change dimensions and mitigation strategies for agricultural sustainability (Vol. II, pp. 1–24). New Delhi Publishers.
Gibba, A. (2017). Revealed comparative advantage and trade competitiveness in global vegetable products. International Journal of Scientific & Technology Research, 6(5), 2277–8616.
Gobu, R., Harish Babu, B. N., Chandra, K., Shankar, M., & Omprakash. (2017). Genetic variability, heritability, and genetic advance in eggplant genotypes under stress conditions. International Journal of Current Microbiology and Applied Sciences, 6(3), 749–760. https://doi.org/10.20546/ijcmas.2017.603.087
Gramazio, P., Alonso, D., Arrones, A., Villanueva, G., Plazas, M., Toppino, L., Barchi, L., Portis, E., Ferrante, P., Lanteri, S., et al. (2023). Conventional and new genetic resources for an eggplant breeding revolution. Journal of Experimental Botany, 74(20), 6285–6305. https://doi.org/10.1093/jxb/erad260
Habib, N., Tahir, A., & Qurat ul Ain. (2013). Current situation and future outlook of sorghum production in Pakistan. Asian Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development, 3(5), 283–289. https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.198123
Hannachi, S., Signore, A., Adnan, M., & Mechi, L. (2022). Effects of drought and heat stress on eggplant cultivars. Plants, 11(18), 2404. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants11182404
Haq, E., & Rizvi, P. Q. (2023). Impact of weather on population dynamics and infestation of Leucinodes orbonalis on brinjal. Journal of Experimental Agriculture International, 45(9), 13–23. https://doi.org/10.9734/jeai/2023/v45i92173
Hossain, M. D. (2021). Growth model and forecasting prices of some agricultural products in Bangladesh. Journal of Agricultural and Marine Sciences, 26(2), 64–71. https://doi.org/10.53541/jams.vol26iss2pp64-71
Huang, K.-M., Guan, Z., & Hammami, A. (2022). The U.S. fresh fruit and vegetable industry: An overview of production and trade. Agriculture, 12(10), 1719. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture12101719
Huang, S. (2004). Global trade patterns in fruits and vegetables (Agriculture and Trade Report No. WRS-04-06). U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.753525
Islam, M. M., He, J., Yong, M., Babla, M., Liang, W., Li, L., Bose, J., Donovan-Mak, M., Huda, S., Tissue, D., Ahmed, T., & Chen, Z.-H. (2023). Reduced fertigation input sustains yield and physiological performance for improved economic returns and cleaner production of greenhouse eggplant. Journal of Cleaner Production, 405, 137102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scienta.2024.113097
Kaniyassery, A., Thorat, S. A., Kiran, K. R., Murali, T. S., & Muthusamy, A. (2022). Fungal diseases of eggplant (Solanum melongena L.) and components of the disease triangle: A review. HortTechnology, 32(6), 543–594. https://doi.org/10.1080/15427528.2022.2120145
Keinath, A. P. (2024). Productive specialty eggplant cultivars suitable for small farms in the Southeastern Coastal Plain. HortScience, 59(5), 624–631. https://doi.org/10.21273/HORTSCI17693-24
Kumar, A., Sharma, V., Jain, B. T., & Kaushik, P. (2020). Heterosis breeding in eggplant (Solanum melongena L.): Gains and provocations. Plants, 9(3), 403. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants9030403
Li, B., Li, J., Li, W., & Shirodkar, S. A. (2011). Demand forecasting for production planning decision-making based on optimized fuzzy short time-series clustering. International Journal of Production Research, 49(23), 663–673. https://doi.org/10.1080/09537287.2011.584578
Li, Y. C., Klassen, W., Lamberts, M., Olczyk, T., & Liu, G. (2021). Eggplant production in Miami-Dade County, Florida (HS-856). University of Florida IFAS Extension. https://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/publication/TR008
Lin, T., Goldsworthy, M., Chavan, S., Liang, W., Maier, C., Ghannoum, O., Cazzonelli, C. I., Tissue, D. T., Lan, Y.-C., Sethuvenkatraman, S., Lin, H., Jia, B., & Chen, Z.-H. (2022). A novel cover material improves cooling energy and fertigation efficiency for glasshouse eggplant production. Energy, 251, 123871. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.123871
Meyer, R. S., Bamshad, M., Fuller, D. Q., & Litt, A. (2012). Comparing medicinal uses of eggplant and related Solanaceae in China, India, and the Philippines. Economic Botany, 66(2), 147–160. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12231-014-9267-6
Naeem, M. Y., & Uğur, S. (2019). Nutritional content and health benefits of eggplant. Turkish Journal of Agriculture – Food Science and Technology, 7(sp3), 31–36. https://doi.org/10.24925/turjaf.v7isp3.31-36.3146
Nguyen, G. N., Lantzke, N., & van Burgel, A. (2022). Effects of shade nets on microclimatic conditions, growth, fruit yield, and quality of eggplant (Solanum melongena L.). Horticulturae, 8(8), 696. https://doi.org/10.3390/horticulturae8080696
Noda, Y., Kaneyuki, T., Igarashi, K., & Mori, A. (2000). Antioxidant activity of nasunin in eggplant peels. Toxicology, 148(2–3), 119–123. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0300-483X(00)00202-X
Nuraini, P. G. (2019). Balance of trade: Theories and practices. International Journal of Tax Economics and Management, 2(3), 33–41.
Nurfadila, J. S., Baja, S., Neswati, R., & Rukmana, D. (2022). Analysis of trends and driving factors for plantation crop production. Bulgarian Journal of Agricultural Science, 28(5), 803–811.
Pandey, M., Bhattarai, N., Pandey, P., Chaudhary, P., Katuwal, D. R., & Khanal, D. (2023). A review on biology and possible management strategies of tomato leaf miner, Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) in Nepal. Heliyon, 9(5), e16474. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e16474
Pant, H., Maurya, A. K., John, V., & Singh, M. K. (2024). Diseases of eggplant and their management. In Futuristic trends in agriculture engineering & food sciences (Chap. 17). IIP Series. https://doi.org/10.58532/V3BCAG6P1CH17
Prodhan, M. Z. H., Hasan, M. T., Chowdhury, M. M. I., Alam, M. S., Rahman, M. L., Azad, A. K., Hossain, M. J., Naranjo, S. E., & Shelton, A. M. (2018). Bt eggplant (Solanum melongena L.) in Bangladesh: Fruit production and control of eggplant fruit and shoot borer (Leucinodes orbonalis Guenée), effects on non-target arthropods and economic returns. PLOS ONE, 13(11), e0205713. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0205713
Rahman, M. A., Islam, M., Begum, M. M., & Arfin, S. (2019). Technical and economic feasibility of improved postharvest management in eggplant value chains. International Journal of Agricultural Research Innovation and Technology, 9(2), 35–41. https://doi.org/10.3329/ijarit.v9i2.45408
Rajasekhar, G., Lakshmi, K. S. I., Rajarushi, C. N., Jayanth, B. V., Mahendra, K. R., Shashikala, M., & Chaitanya, M. (2024). Seasonal incidence of Leucinodes orbonalis and evaluation of control measures. International Journal of Entomology Research, 9(2), 45–53. https://doi.org/10.55446/IJE.2024.2418
Rakha, M., Prohens, J., Taher, D., Wu, T.-H., & Solberg, S. O. (2021). Eggplant breeding. In J. M. Al-Khayri, S. M. Jain, & D. V. Johnson (Eds.), Advances in plant breeding strategies: Vegetable crops (Vol. 9, pp. 163–203). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-66961-4_5
Rasouli, F., Babla, M., Li, L., Liang, W., Yong, M. T., Ahmed, T., Tissue, D., Huda, S., & Chen, Z. H. (2023). Yield performance and water use efficiency in eggplant genotypes. Horticulturae, 9(1), 19. https://doi.org/10.3390/horticulturae9010019
Sanwa, R. L., Katuwal, D. R., Dhakal, A., Karki, L., & Ali, M. (2026). U.S. tomato production and trade forecasting using quadratic trend models. American Journal of Applied Statistics and Economics, 5(1), 44–55. https://doi.org/10.54536/ajase.v5i1.6401
Sanyang, S. E., Demba, S., & Njie, E. (2025). Growth performance of eggplant under organic manure and irrigation regimes. International Journal of Applied Agricultural Sciences, 11(1). https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijaas.20251101.13
Sękara, A., Cebula, S., & Kunicki, E. (2007). Cultivated eggplants: Origin and breeding. Folia Horticulturae, 19(1), 97–114. https://doi.org/10.2478/v10060-008-0014-0
Sharma, M., & Kaushik, P. (2021). Biochemical composition of eggplant fruits. Applied Sciences, 11(15), 7078. https://doi.org/10.3390/app11157078
Shelton, A. M., Sarwer, S. H., Hossain, M. J., Brookes, G., & Paranjape, V. (2020). Impact of Bt brinjal cultivation in Bangladesh. Frontiers in Bioengineering and Biotechnology, 8, 498. https://doi.org/10.3389/fbioe.2020.00498
Sideman, R. G., Bryant, H., & Saunders, O. (2024). Yield and postharvest performance of eggplant cultivars. HortTechnology, 34(3), 331–338. https://doi.org/10.21273/HORTTECH05404-24
Simnitt, S., & Martin, P. (2022). U.S. fruit and vegetable industries and labor costs. Amber Waves. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2022/december/u-s-fruit-and-vegetable-industries-try-to-cope-with-rising-labor-costs
Singh, A., & Singh, B. (2021). Quadratic trend model for forecasting rice production. Environment and Ecology, 39(3), 584–588.
Tahir, A. (2014). Forecasting citrus exports in Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Agricultural Research, 27(1), 64–70. https://www.cabidigitallibrary.org/doi/pdf/10.5555/20143294451
Thapa, B., Bharati, S., & Katuwal, D. R. (2024). Socio-economic issues on pesticide use. Journal of the Institute of Agriculture and Animal Science, 38, 77–85. https://doi.org/10.3126/jiaas.v38i1.73086
Thapa, B., Bhandari, T., Panta, H. K., Timalsina, R., Bharati, S., & Katuwal, D. R. (2026). Factors affecting vegetable farmers’ participation in the formal credit program and intensity of borrowing in Kavrepalanchok district, Nepal: A double hurdle approach. Journal of Science and Inclusive Development, 8(1). https://doi.org/10.20372/jsid/2026-421
Toppino, L., Barchi, L., Lo Scalzo, R., Palazzolo, E., Francese, G., Fibiani, M., D’Alessandro, A., Papa, V., Laudicina, V. A., Sabatino, L., Pulcini, L., Sala, T., Acciarri, N., Portis, E., Lanteri, S., Mennella, G., & Rotino, G. L. (2016). Mapping quantitative trait loci in eggplant. Frontiers in Plant Science, 7, 256. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2016.00256
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. (2023). U.S. vegetable production and trade. https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=104217
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing Service. (2025). Eggplant grades and standards. https://www.ams.usda.gov/grades-standards/eggplant-grades-and-standards
U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service. (2025). Quick Stats database results. https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/results/287CBB00-2AD5-3C32-8035-C64CFB2C7AD1
Wang, B., Bao, R., Yan, H., Zheng, H., Wu, J., Zhang, C., & Wang, G. (2024). Evapotranspiration and crop coefficients for greenhouse eggplant. Irrigation and Drainage, 74(2), 556–568. https://doi.org/10.1002/ird.3025
Whitaker, B. D., & Stommel, J. R. (2003). Distribution of hydroxycinnamic acid conjugates in eggplant fruit. Journal of Agricultural and Food Chemistry, 51(11), 3448–3454. https://doi.org/10.1021/jf026250b
Win, M. T., Rutledge, Z., & Maredia, M. K. (2025). Labor
shortages and farmer adaptation strategies. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 47(3), 896–913. https://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.13527
Wu, F., Guan, Z., & Garcia-Nazariega, M. (2018). Labor cost comparison in strawberry industries. University of Florida IFAS Extension. https://doi.org/10.32473/edis-fe1023-2017
Zhang, M., Liu, Y., Wei, Q., Liu, L., Gu, X., & Gou, J. (2022). Biochar-based fertilizer and eggplant production. Agriculture, 12(9), 1388. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture12091388
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 A. Dhakal, D. R. Katuwal, R. L. Sanwa, L. Karki, M. Ali (Author)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
