Production and Global Apple Market Dynamics of U.S. Apples: Analysis and Forecasting with a Quadratic Trend Model
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54536/ajitbae.v1i1.8035Keywords:
Apple Production Forecasting, Apple Production Trend Analysis, Comparison, Forecasting Models, Trade DynamicsAbstract
Apple (Malus domestica) is one of the most economically significant horticultural crops in the United States, playing a pivotal role in both national agricultural production and international trade. However, few studies have been conducted to examine U.S. apple production and trade trends together with future production forecasting using recent data. This study addresses this research gap by analyzing U.S. apple production, exports, and imports from 1990 to 2024 and projecting production for 2025–2030. Annual secondary data were downloaded from FAOSTAT, the World Bank World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS), and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Linear, quadratic, and exponential deterministic trend models were estimated by using ordinary least squares regression, with the exponential model fitted after log transformation. Model performance was evaluated through in-sample validation by using Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Deviation (MSD), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and the model with the least forecasting errors was selected for forecasting. The results show that U.S. apple production remained comparatively stable between 1990 and 2024, fluctuating between around 4.0 and 5.5 million tonnes annually, whereas global production increased from 40.9 million tonnes to 97.9 million tonnes, which is largely driven by rapid production growth in China. Among the models assessed, the quadratic trend model achieved the highest forecasting accuracy (MAPE = 6.26%), indicating that U.S. apple production shows a nonlinear trend over time. The model forecasts production to increase gradually from approximately 5.08 million tonnes in 2025 to 5.43 million tonnes in 2030, although widening confidence intervals indicate Increasing forecast uncertainty over the forecast period. The originality of this study lies in providing an updated analysis of U.S. apple production and trade trends from 1990 to 2024 and applying the best deterministic trend model to forecast future production. The findings provide updated empirical evidence to support efficient resource allocation, production planning, market competitiveness, and evidence-based agricultural and trade policy under increasing economic, market, and climatic uncertainty.
Downloads
References
Abid, S., Raza, I., Khalil, A., Khan, M. N., Anwar, S., & Masood, M. A. (2014). Trend analysis and forecasting of maize area and production in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. European Academic Research, 2(4), 4649–4665. https://euacademic.org/UploadArticle/711.pdf
Agirbov, Y. I., Mukhametzyanov, R. R., Arzamastseva, N. V., & Kovaleva, E. V. (2024). Apple production: Area, gross yield, productivity in the world and main countries. Timiryazev Biological Journal, 1(4), 34–46. https://doi.org/10.26897/2949-4710-2023-4-34-46
Ariadi, B. (2022). The economic impact of climate change on the local apple. Agriecobis: Journal of Agricultural Socioeconomics and Business, 5(1), 73–82. https://doi.org/10.22219/agriecobis.v5i1.20354
Astatkie, T. (2006). Absolute and relative measures for evaluating the forecasting performance of time series models for daily streamflows. Hydrology Research, 37(3), 205–215. https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2006.008
Atkinson, C. J., Brennan, R. M., & Jones, H. G. (2013). Declining chilling and its impact on temperate perennial crops. Environmental and Experimental Botany, 91, 48–62. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envexpbot.2013.02.004
Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C., & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time series analysis: Forecasting and control (5th ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Boyer, J., & Liu, R. H. (2004). Apple phytochemicals and their health benefits. Nutrition Journal, 3, 5. https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2891-3-5
Cabote, N. J., Gallardo, R. K., Torres, C. A., & Galinato, S. P. (2026). Economic analysis of dynamically controlled atmosphere storage for organic apples. HortScience, 61(3), 483–493. https://doi.org/10.21273/HORTSCI19140-25
Davis, W. V., Weber, C., Wakefield, H., & Wechsler, S. (2025). Vegetables and pulses outlook: April 2025 (Report No. VGS-375). U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
Dolan, S. (2009). Fruitful legacy: A historic context of orchards in the United States, with technical information for registering orchards in the National Register of Historic Places. National Park Service. https://archive.org/details/fruitfullegacyhi00dola
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. (2022). The state of agricultural commodity markets 2022. https://www.fao.org/3/cc0471en/cc0471en.pdf
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. (2023). FAOSTAT statistical database. https://www.fao.org/faostat
GuruFocus. (2024). Apple (AAPL) faces challenges amid US–China trade tensions. https://www.gurufocus.com/news/2685172
Hyson, D. A. (2011). A comprehensive review of apples and apple components and their relationship to human health. Advances in Nutrition, 2(5), 408–420. https://doi.org/10.3945/an.111.000513
Hyndman, R. J., & Athanasopoulos, G. (2021). Forecasting: Principles and practice (3rd ed.). OTexts. https://otexts.com/fpp3/
Southern Hemisphere apple exports increased by 9.1% in 2024. (2025, March 26). FreshPlaza. https://www.freshplaza.com/north-america/article/9717374/southern-hemisphere-apple-exports-increased-by-9-1-in-2024/
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2022). Climate change 2022: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Cambridge University Press. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/
Jiao, X.-q., Mongol, N., & Zhang, F.-s. (2018). The transformation of agriculture in China: Looking back and looking forward. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 17(4), 755–764. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2095-3119(17)61774-X
Karim, M. R., Awal, M. A., & Akter, M. (2010). Forecasting of wheat production in Bangladesh. Bangladesh Journal of Agricultural Research, 35(1), 17–28. https://doi.org/10.3329/bjar.v35i1.5861
Kobayashi, K., & Salam, M. U. (2000). Comparing simulated and measured values using mean squared deviation and its components. Agronomy Journal, 92(2), 345–352. https://doi.org/10.2134/agronj2000.922345x
Kolambe, M., & Arora, S. (2024). Forecasting the future: A comprehensive review of time series prediction techniques. Journal of Electrical Systems, 20(2s), 575–586. https://doi.org/10.52783/jes.1478
Kurumatani, K. (2020). Time series forecasting of agricultural product prices based on recurrent neural networks and its evaluation method. SN Applied Sciences, 2, Article 1434. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42452-020-03225-9
Kyriazos, T. A., & Poga, M. (2024). Application of machine learning models in social sciences: Managing nonlinear relationships. Encyclopedia, 4(4), 1790–1805. https://doi.org/10.3390/encyclopedia4040118
Limbu Sanwa, R., Katuwal, D. R., Dhakal, A., Karki, L., & Ali, M. (2026). U.S. production and trade contribution to the global tomato market: Analysis of U.S. production forecasts using a quadratic trend model. American Journal of Applied Statistics and Economics, 5(1). https://doi.org/10.54536/ajase.v5i1.6401
Mabrouk, F., Shahbaz, P., Mashaal, A. A., & Nadeem, M. (2026). Economic performance of organic and conventional apple production systems under climate variability: Evidence from commercial orchards. Applied Fruit Science, 68(3). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10341-026-01896-z
Marklein, A., Elias, E. H., Nico, P., & Steenwerth, K. L. (2020). Projected temperature increases may require shifts in the growing season of cool-season crops and the growing locations of warm-season crops. Science of the Total Environment, 746, Article 140918. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140918
Myttenaere, A., Golden, B., Le Grand, B., & Rossi, F. (2016). Using the mean absolute percentage error for regression models. Neurocomputing, 192, 38–48. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neucom.2015.12.114
Nurfadila, J. S., Baja, S., Neswati, R., & Rukmana, D. (2022). Analysis of trends and driving factors for plantation crop production. Bulgarian Journal of Agricultural Science, 28(5), 828–836.
Observatory of Economic Complexity. (2023). Apples, fresh – USA exports and destinations. https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/apples-fresh/reporter/usa
Ojha, S., Karki, L. B., & Ali, M. (2025). A comprehensive analysis of potato production and trade: Global trends and U.S. production forecasting. American Journal of Economics and Business Innovation, 4(2), 42–48. https://doi.org/10.54536/ajebi.v4i2.4311
Pawlak, K., Smutka, L., & Kotyza, P. (2021). Agricultural potential of the EU countries: How far are they from the USA. Agriculture, 11(4), 282. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture11040282
Petri, J. L., & Leite, G. B. (2004). Consequences of insufficient winter chilling on apple tree bud-break. Acta Horticulturae, 662, 55–64. https://doi.org/10.17660/ActaHortic.2004.662.4
Pickson, R. B., Zhao, C., Hu, Y., & Boateng, E. (2026). Apple production under changing climate conditions in major producing countries. Scientific Reports, 16, Article 24657. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-54941-y
Robinson, T. L. (2007). Recent advances and future directions in orchard planting systems. Acta Horticulturae, 732, 367–381. https://doi.org/10.17660/ActaHortic.2007.732.55
Robinson, T. L. (2008). The evolution towards more competitive apple orchard systems in the USA. Acta Horticulturae, 772, 491–500. https://doi.org/10.17660/ActaHortic.2008.772.81
Schotzko, R. T., & Granatstein, D. (2004). A brief look at the Washington apple industry: Past and present (SES 04-05). Washington State University, School of Economic Sciences. https://hdl.handle.net/2376/5871
Peng, M. (2019). The growing market of organic foods: Impact on the U.S. and global economy. In Organic food: Production, processing, and marketing (pp. 3–22). Academic Press. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-812060-6.00001-5
Tahir, A. T., & Habib, N. H. (2013). Forecasting of maize area and production in Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Agricultural Research, 26(4), 243–249.
Taschetta-Millane, M. (2026, June 2). Why the U.S. apple industry is at a crossroads. Growing Produce. https://www.growingproduce.com/fruits/apples-pears/why-the-u-s-apple-industry-is-at-a-crossroads/
Trendeconomy. (2023). Commodity trade statistics: Apples (fresh), HS 080810. https://trendeconomy.com/data/commodity_h2/080810
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. (2023). Advancements in apple picking: An industry addresses tight farm labor markets. Amber Waves. https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2023/june/advancements-in-apple-picking-an-industry-addresses-tight-farm-labor-markets
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service. (2024). Production, supply, and distribution (PSD) database. https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/home
U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service. (2024). Quick Stats database. https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/
Vogel, E., Donat, M. G., Alexander, L. V., Meinshausen, M., Ray, D. K., Karoly, D., Meinshausen, N., & Frieler, K. (2019). The effects of climate extremes on global agricultural yields. Environmental Research Letters, 14(5), 054010. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab154b
Washington State University. (2025). Prime apple-growing areas in the U.S. face increasing climate risks. https://news.wsu.edu/press-release/2025/01/06/prime-apple-growing-areas-in-us-face-increasing-climate-risks/
Wikifarmer. (2024). Deep dive: The global apple market 2024/2025. https://wikifarmer.com/library/en/article/deep-dive-the-global-apple-market-2024-2025/
Willmott, C. J., & Matsuura, K. (2005). Advantages of the mean absolute error (MAE) over the root mean square error (RMSE) in assessing average model performance. Climate Research, 30(1), 79–82. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr030079
World Bank. (2025). United States exports of fresh apples (HS 080810). World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS). https://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/USA/year/2024/tradeflow/Exports/partner/ALL/product/080810
Wang, Q., Sun, J., & Parsons, R. (2010). Consumer preferences and willingness to pay for locally grown organic apples: Evidence from a conjoint study. HortScience, 45(3), 376–381. https://doi.org/10.21273/HORTSCI.45.3.376
Zhang, Z., Pothula, A. K., & Lu, R. (2017). Economic evaluation of apple harvest and in-field sorting technology. Transactions of the ASABE, 60(5), 1537–1550. https://doi.org/10.13031/trans.12226
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 S. S. Thagunna, L. B. Karki, M. Ali (Author)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
