Modeling Flooding as a Consequence of Climate Change Dynamics in Abuja Municipal Area Council (AMAC), Abuja, Nigeria
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54536/ajec.v5i3.8681Keywords:
Analytical Bierarchy Process, Climate Change, Flood Vulnerability, UrbanizationAbstract
Globally, vulnerability to flooding is influenced by climate change dynamics, especially in regions that are undergoing rapid urbanization. The dynamics are manifested in the alteration of precipitation patterns, rises in sea levels, and increases in extreme weather events, to mention just a few. Research efforts therefore should be focused on assessing the risks of flooding, understanding the processes involved in climate change adaptation and resilience, making innovations in the ways water resources are managed, and refining disaster response and recovery protocols. The current study models climate-change-driven flood risks, using a multi-criteria analysis approach based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process and integrating geospatial data. The study analyzed several climate-related factors, including land use/land cover changes, topographic wetness index, elevation, precipitation patterns, drainage density, proximity to water bodies, and normalized difference vegetation index. Findings reveal that increased rainfall intensity and urban expansion have amplified flood susceptibility, with low-lying and poorly drained areas at the highest risk. The analysis also revealed that Topographic Wetness Index and Precipitation are the most significant determinants of flood vulnerability, indicating that areas with high potential for water accumulation and intense rainfall are most susceptible to flooding. To translate research into mitigation and adaptation strategies, the study recommends enhancing urban flood resilience through improved drainage infrastructure, enforcing sustainable land-use policies, and integrating climate risk data into urban planning. By modeling climate change dynamics, this research provides actionable insights to policymakers and disaster management agencies, emphasizing proactive adaptation measures to build climate-resilient cities and minimize flood-induced socio-economic losses.
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