Certainties and Sensitivity Analysis of the Global Economy: A GDP by End-Use Approach
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54536/jgesd.v2i1.8948Keywords:
Balance Of Trade, Country Economic Perspectives, Economic Modelling, Gdp By End-Use, Gdp Evolution, Gdp Forecast, Global Economy, Linear Regression, Monte Carlo Simulations, Sensitivity Analysis, Statistical AnalysisAbstract
This research first analyses the evolution of four GDP by end-use variables (Household Consumption, Government Spending, Exports, and Imports) for the top 40 economies in the world, covering up to 90% of the global economy. The first part of the research project is determined by a longitudinal analysis of 40+ years, resulting in a linear regression to the expected GDP value of each nation for 2030. Secondly, both a Monte Carlo and a sensitivity simulation analysis are performed. The analysis reveals that the most sensitive variables that contribute to the dispersion of the GDP by end-use future results are imports, followed by exports. Also, Household Consumption appears with a small presence, while the Government Spending factor shows no sensitivity in the model. This research demonstrates the crucial importance of adjusting the balance of trade.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Jorge Monray
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