Awards as Economic Signals: A Comparative Analysis of Film Award Recognition and Box Office Revenue Trajectories Across Domestic and International Markets
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54536/ajmfpam.v1i1.8807Keywords:
Box Office, Cultural Economics, Film Economics, Media Economics, Regression Analysis, Signaling TheoryAbstract
This study finds that film awards function as a geographical economic signal, amplifying domestic box office performance over time. Using domestic multiplier analysis and OLS regression across 47 Oscar-nominated films released between 2016 and 2023, this investigation isolates the independent impact of award recognition on revenue trajectories. This study controls for opening weekend gross, production budget, franchise status, and release timing. Films with higher award scores show stronger domestic multipliers. This shows that awards extend theatrical longevity instead of creating immediate demand. The bivariate correlation between Award Score and Domestic Multiplier is positive and significant (r = 0.44, p = .002). This is where the top-quartile award films show mean multipliers of 112.2x compared to 11.5x for bottom-quartile films (Cohen’s d = 1.16). In the full OLS regression model, Award Score has a positive coefficient on Domestic Multiplier after controlling for all covariates (???? = 1.707, SE = 0.592, p = .006). A supplementary bivariate correlation between Award Score and International Revenue Share was positive and statistically significant (r = .30, p = .042), but the association was not statistically significant in the controlled regression model (p = .118).
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