Climate Change Implication on Palestine: A Case Study Jenin Governorate

ABSTRACT


INTRODUCTION
Global warming is already affecting the earth's climate, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Cli-mate Change.Its impacts are felt in all sectors of society, through changes in temperature and precipita-tion as well as through changes in the frequency and intensity of climatic extreme events (Ana, I., Ra-oudha, M., Marta, M. and Sonia, Q. 2010).Climate change is anticipated to impede ongoing development in Palestine, especially the Jenin district, in several crucial sectors like agriculture and food security, wa-ter resources, coastal zones, public health, climate-related catastrophe risk management, and natural re-source management.As a result, climate change will limit the Palestinian government's capacity to achieve poverty reduction and sustainable development goals.Climate change will exacerbate the global hydrological cycle, with significant implications for local water supplies, including surface and groundwater supply for residential and commercial use, irrigation, in-stream ecosystems, and water-based leisure.(Dai, A., and Trenberth, KE. (2004).Changes in the total amount of precipitation and its frequency and intensity directly affect the magnitude and timing of runoff and the intensity of floods and droughts (IPCC 2007).Climate change is expected to have a considerable impact on global agricultural conditions like temperature and precipitation.(Dai, A., Trenberth, KE. and Qian, T. (2004).Climate change is expected to have a considerable impact on global agricultural condi-tions like temperature and precipitation.Agriculture is still heavily reliant on the weather because heat, sunlight, and water are the primary drivers of agricultural development.While certain parts of climate change may be beneficial, such as extending the growing season and hot weather, it will also have several negative consequences, such as lower water availability and more severe weather events.These effects may put agricultural activities in danger, especially at the level of land ownership owners and farm hold-ings.(Goldshtof, I. and Shaliv, G. (1979).The State of Palestine is located on the southwest tip of the Asian continent, in the eastern basin of the Mediterranean Sea.The country lies at a latitude between 29° and 33° north of the Equator, 97.6% of which is land and 2.4% of which is marine (Sea of Galilee and the Dead Sea).The rainfall regime is the most important aspect of Palestine's weather that must be studied.Variations in rainfall regimes, such as yearly amount, amount of rain periods, seasonal distribution, intensity, and timings, all have a significant impact on the country's water supplies.Palestine a wide range of ecosystems, from the humid Mediterranean coast to the arid desert, are vulnera-ble to climate change.As temperatures increase, conditions become drier and storms become stronger, critical resources will become more vulnerable (Guttman, J. and Tzukerman, H. (1995).Climate change will have an impact on almost every sector of the Palestinian economy, but one of the most significant casualties will be water supply and quality.First, freshwater resources -Am.J. Multidis.Res.Innov.2(3) 70-76, 2023 surface and groundwater -will become scarcer as rainfall decreases (Trenberth KE, Fasullo J (2007).This will make replenishing aquifers more difficult during periods of rapid population increase, while also competitive pressures for water from Palestinian agriculture, illegitimate Israeli colonies, and industry.Decreased rainfall will also cause water extraction more expensive and energy intensive.With the scarcity of treat-ment facilities, warm temperatures and more silt may endanger the quality of drinking water.Second, because climate change raises the probability of severe, short-term rainfall rather than an ex-tended rainy season, flash floods are more likely.The current infrastructure in the OPT is incapable of handling significant rains, which could result in drowning in urban areas due to poor sewer and drainage systems.Increases in worldwide ocean and atmosphere temperature, increasing worldwide sea levels, long-term maintained widespread reductions in the amount of ice and snow cover, and changes in atmospheric and ocean circulation, as well as regional weather patterns, have all been noticed over the twentieth century (Gu., G., Adler, RF., Huffman, GJ., and Curtis, S.) ( 2007).These shifts occur because of excessive temper-atures in the climate system as a result of the addition of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.Human ac-tivities are the primary source of these additional greenhouse gases.While the weather might change in a couple of hours, the environment changes over time.Climate change is characterized by an important change in typical weather patterns, such as growing warmer, wetter, or drier over many years or even decades.This study would identify the climate change variables in Jenin district for more than 100 years especially temperatures and rainfall derived from observed, historical data to show if there is an existence of climate change.There has been a large decrease in rainfall and a noteworthy increase in temperature over this time frame.Extreme weather conditions, such as increased droughts or severe rainfall leading to floodwaters, may harm the agriculture industry, impacting both cool and heat-sensitive crops.(Isaac, J. et al. (1995).

METHODOLOGY
The descriptive and analytical approach was used, by collecting data from official bodies, papers pub-lished in journals, and books or papers presented at conferences.Previous literature review studies.

Data Collection
Data were collected from the official Palestinian and Israeli meteorological websites, reports issued by the Water Authority and the Ministry of Agriculture, and interviews with specialists.

Data Analysis Method
The survey data will be analyzed by Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS 20), GIS, and Excel.

Study Area
Jenin is located in a temperate zone which is between 23.5' and 66.5' as the latitude is one of the climate change factors (Ministry of Local Government, 2018).watershed line is formed by mountain peaks that split the eastern and western slopes.The average elevation is 500 to 650 meters above sea lev-el.The western slopes, which have mild slopes, have elevations ranging from 100 to 400 meters above sea level as shown in figure 3.

Topography
The Jenin district's topography is separated into three sections: eastern hills, mountain crests, and western cliffs.Between the Jordan Valley and the middle mountain lie the eastern slopes.They are distinguished by steep slopes that lead to the formation of juvenile wadis.The   The curve shows the natural variability in temperature from 1901 to 1970, but after 1970, it shows an accelerating increase in temperature, not just mean readings, but also an increase in magnitude and frequency.This led to a result that this is due to climate change which mainly happened due to human interventions, especially after the industrial revolution.In addition, we can notice the increase in mean temperatures of around 2 Celsius within 100 years.

Observed Annual Max., Min, and Mean-Temperature 1901-2021, Jenin
In order to check the variation in also maximum and minimum temperature, temperature data is being analyzed.All the data, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and mean temperature is observed da-ta.The minimum temperature is usually measured from eight mornings to the next day eight mornings.On the other hand, the maximum temperature is usually measured from

Groundwater and Time-Phased Discharge Quantities
Amount of groundwater and time-phased discharge: The primary water supply in Jenin is groundwater, which is provided by both wells and springs.The Jenin district has 66 wells that are used for farming as well as domestic purposes.The Palestinian private sector owns 58 of these wells, which are utilized for ir-rigation.The remaining five wells are public, either owned by Palestinian municipalities (Jenin and Ya'bad municipal wells) or by the Israeli Mekorot water business (A'rraba, Qabatiya, and Sanur wells) and utilized for household purposes (PCBS) (2019).Apart from the Jenin municipality well, all irrigation wells are tapping the Eocene shallow watershed, whereas domestic wells are tapping the Upper Cenomanian aq-uifer.Jenin is located in the North Easter basin which is the section of the broader Mountain Aquifer (which also includes the Western and Eastern Aquifers) with groundwater flowing predominantly north-northeast and emerging in numerous notable springs.The basin is a vital supply of clean water for the Palestinian people of Jenin.The recharge to the Northeast basin is calculated by application of empirical recharge Coefficients ob-tained in previous calibrations for less detailed models (Guttman and Tzukerman, 1995;Goldshtof and Shaliv, 1979)

Springs
The Jenin district has 42 springs; however, the majority lose water from leakage, are irregular, and are vulnerable to the drought consequences of climate change.Springs There are 42 springs in the Jenin district, but the majority loses water through seepage, is seasonal, and is subject to drought effects of climate change.Springs are often utilized on a small scale for agricultural and home reasons.The (Arab Organization for Agricultural Development, 2014).However, data from six springs which are monitored by the West Bank Water Department (WBWD) was analyzed (PCBS, 2002(PCBS, -2020)).It is shown that the discharge of springs is increasing from 2014 to 2020 (the average dis-charge is 0.48 M CM/year) compared to the period 2001 to 2011(the average discharge is 0.48 M CM/year).It could be happened because of the increase of discharge quantities from springs and the start of relying on them more as Jenin district faces water scarcity recently.Furthermore, the reliability of data should be checked and the number of discharge-controlled springs should be increased.

CONCLUSION
According to the observed average annual temperatures, during the past 120 years, the average annual temperature in Jenin Governorate increased by about two degrees Celsius, and the noticeable increase was between 1970 and 2021.The increase was similar between the maximum, minimum, and average temper-atures during the period.this period.The results showed that the average annual rainfall during the same period decreased by 142 mm, or ap-proximately 22%, meaning that the annual decrease amounted to 1.18 annually.Where the average precipitation in 1901 was 650 mm, while in 2021 it became 508 mm.The results also showed that the average annual rainfall in the northeast of the basin decreased by 11.3% during the period between 1976-2009, and therefore agricultural wells and drinking wells were affected by that.Because of the low level of groundwater wells, farmers and residents tended to use springs to compensate for the resulting shortage Palestine is affected by climate change and based on the results, it is expected that the increase in the year 2050 will reach about 3.2 degrees Celsius at the same time, rainfall is expected to decrease to 177.5, or a 27 percent decrease, and this threatens food security, biodiversity, and human presence in the region.De-cision makers should work from now on developing strategic and practical plans to adapt to climate change

Figure 1 :
Figure 1: Latitude of Jenin District Elevation Jenin has a highest point is 750m above sea level at Jabel Hureish, 3.5 Km east of the Jaba'a village, while the lowest elevation is 90m above sea level at El Mukhabba area, south of Muqebila village at the Israeli border.A Digital elevation model (DEM) with a pixel size of 100m was created for the Jenin district as shown in figure 2.

Figure 3 :
Figure 3: Drainage System in Jenin District RESULTS Observed Annual Mean Temperature 1901-2021 Statistics should be used to establish a good grasp of the existing climate conditions in Jenin in order to understand anticipated climate change and future climate scenarios.An observed temperature would be used in this analysis, these observed data is taken from the climate knowledge portal world bank for over the last 100 years as shown in figure4 and 5.These curves represent the annual mean temperature in Jenin over 100 years, from 1901 to 2021.

Figure 2 :
Figure 2: DEM of Jenin District, which is themed using the threshold table with an interval of 100m

Figure 8 :
Figure 8: Observed seasonal precipitations 1901-2021, Jenin Figure 10: Annual average recharge from rainfall in the North East Basin precipitation in Jenin District, as indicated in the rainfall statistics report for the last 30 years.Reduced recharge and increased groundwater pumping have depleted aquifer storage and worsened groundwater quality.

Fig 11 :
Fig 11: The Annual Discharge for springs in Jenin District are often employed on a small scale for agricultural and home reasons.The West Bank Water Department (WBWD) monitors six springs with discharge rates greater than 0.1 l/sec.as shown in figure 11.There are 42 springs in the Jenin district, but the majority loses water through seepage, is seasonal, and is subject to drought effects of climate change.Springs are often utilized on a small scale for agricultural and home reasons.The (Arab Organization for Agricultural Development, 2014).However, data from six springs which are monitored by the West Bank Water Department (WBWD) was analyzed(PCBS, 2002(PCBS,  -2020)).It is shown that the discharge of springs is increasing from 2014 to 2020 (the average dis-charge is 0.48 M CM/year) compared to